Government & Politics

November, 03, 2006 - 09:45 AM / ET

Democrats at a 2-1 Advantage Over Republicans Among Hispanic Likely Voters
National Poll Shows Immigration Not Among Issues Most Driving Decision Making, Other Findings Show 71% of Hispanic Potential Voters Plan to Participate in Mid-Term Elections


Among Likely Voters, More Hispanics Than Non-Hispanics Are Undecided About Tuesday’s Election, Poll Shows

Miami, FL--(HISPANIC PR WIRE)--November 3, 2006--Almost half of Hispanic likely voters (49%) have decided to vote for change in the U.S. Congress, indicating they would vote for the Democratic party’s candidate if the election were held today, according to a recent poll conducted by Miami-based Encuesta Inc., an independent market research and opinion polling firm. Republican party candidates, meanwhile, enjoy support from 34% of Non-Hispanics compared to 22% of Hispanics.

 

Likely voters indicated that in addition to a candidate’s position on issues, their vote is also greatly influenced by a candidate’s moral character and experience, significantly more than by political party affiliation. Based on those considerations, the Democrats currently come out ahead, though candidates still have room to sway one-fifth (20%) of Hispanic likely voters who say they don’t yet know who will get their vote, significantly more than the 13% of Non-Hispanics who indicate they are still undecided.

 

The key issues both population groups will have in mind when going to the polls closely resemble each other, with top mentions including the war in Iraq, terrorism, social security, and healthcare (see complete results below). Surprisingly, illegal immigration is not a top issue driving voter choice among Hispanics and Non-Hispanics alike.

 

Almost two-thirds of Hispanic potential voters “strongly” or “somewhat agree” that in the U.S., citizens can influence government by voting at the federal level, and 71% say they plan to participate in future elections. The reluctance or uncertainty of the rest might in part be explained by the 30% who are “extremely concerned” about voting count inaccuracies and 32% about voting fraud.

 

Encuesta, Inc. conducted the poll by telephone between October 11-30, 2006, among a representative national sample of 300 non-Hispanic and 300 Hispanic adults, in their language of choice.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5%, with a higher margin of error for sub-groups.

 

Data on other questions regarding political opinion and behavior are available, as are breakdowns by demographic and other variables.

 

% Who Consider Issue "Very Important" in Deciding to Vote for One Presidential/Congressional Candidate Over Another
(3-Point Scale: "Very Important," "Somewhat Important," "Not at All Important")

 

                                Hispanic   Non-Hispanic   Difference

                                    %           %                  

TERRORISM                          89          77             12   

SOCIAL SECURITY                    87          76             11   

NATIONAL SECURITY                  86          70             16   

HEALTHCARE                         86          76             10   

MEDICARE                           85          67             18   

ECONOMY IN GENERAL                 85          71             14   

FAMILY VALUES                      84          67             17   

WAR IN IRAQ                        84          81              3   

GAS PRICES                         83          59             24   

CORRUPTION IN GOVERNMENT           83          72             11   

TAXES                              82          66             16   

MORALITY AND ETHICS                81          67             14   

COST OF HIGHER EDUCATION           80          61             19   

QUALITY OF PUBLIC EDUCATION        80          72              8   

UNEMPLOYMENT                       79          61             18   

CRIME                              79          68             11   

CHILDCARE                          78          49             29   

NATURAL DISASTER RELIEF            78          50             28   

DRUGS                              77          61             16   

ENERGY POLICY                      75          58             17   

COST OF LIVING                     75          64             11   

POVERTY                            75          66              9   

MINIMUM WAGE                       73          61             12   

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION                72          55             17    

U.S. FOREIGN POLICY                72          64              8   

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES         71          55             16   

DISSATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT    70          57             13   

ETHNIC AND RACIAL RELATIONS        66          50             16   

GLOBAL WARMING                     65          51             14   

ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION            65          52             13   

NATIONAL DEBT                      65          58              7   

ABORTION                           64          40             24   

DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH             64          44             20   

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION              60          34             26   

JOBS MOVING OVERSEAS               59          57              2   

TRAFFIC CONGESTION                 53          33             20   

STEM-CELL RESEARCH                 48          45              3   

SAME-SEX MARRIAGE                  39          22             17   








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